|| What is strategy

49.  What is strategy?

Strategy is the art of making decisions.

• provide guidance for major decisions about where D&S will focus over the coming years
• develop the overall strategy going forward, in conjunction with a wide variety of stakeholders 
• driven by a fact-based about our current business economics, market dynamics, and competitive position
• drive focus for new product development, M&A, partnerships, vertical focus, and other resource trade-offs
• create an ongoing "Strategic Agenda"
• sourcing and evaluating new product ideas, expect many ideas will come from the broader organization, and it will be critical that we facilitate broad involvement and not act as an "ivory tower"
• organized into generalists, FI experts, and R&C experts
• take a project-based consultative approach to working, with team members working on flexible engagements with varied team composition focused on specific objectives

|| Learning the day to day

48. How do I describe the way I work?

• fact-based strategic mindset, feel comfortable of saying "I have concerns" or "I would advise", even when politically challenging, when that is what the fact-based supports

• enjoy working on consultative goal-driven teams, with variation in day-to-day responsibilities/priorities, the highest quality standards, and a will-to-win mentality

• Conducts data-driven analysis, including economic analysis, strategic "tailwind" and "headwind" identification, competitive analysis/benchmarking, and business case creation

• Partners with a diverse set of stakeholders across the organization to solicit ideas, conduct outstanding analysis and to generate buy-in to proposed directions

• Maintains an objective position, bringing facts and insights to the organization with "no dog in the hunt"

• Can come up to speed quickly on a wide range of topics, and enjoys the process of continuous learning

• Cares more about getting the right outcome than getting credit

• Manages work efficiently, seamlessly teaming with others to work through our agenda quickly and pushing back on work that should be done elsewhere in the organization

• Has successfully managed and developed others

• Writes concise written materials and presents in a compelling, data-driven way, with the ability to stand one's ground without alienating others

• Drives a data-driven, agile culture as a role model and influencer within S&I, all of D&S, and the region

|| 20 Minutes

47. 20 Minutes is a lot of time and not enough time

- 2min intro, 17 years with capital one, started with corporate planning, then splitting 50/50 between card finance and bank finance. 

• working with card acquisition leaders, lisa fischer, troy jamison, cetin, rick elliott, celia, iskender, poenitz, weathered the storm, resiliency really means a lot for me, valuation, marketing, and credit ... card act scenarios, cash-based cashflows into GAAP based cashflows, Basel capital implementation, rewards accounting into the sas models, impacts to valuation and marketing
• more recent years, on the other side of the balance sheet, are with the bank between small business banking and consumer banking, building the forecast eco-system to incorporate the people/intermediaries in the bank value chain; SBB national endeavor not successful, but the consumer national endeavor has been a lot better ... too much growth too fast
• Have wanted to get into ACC for a number of years.  The first week, absolutely love it, love the depth of the analytical conversations, disciplined, self-reflecting, the self-drive for excellence, not afraid of the uncertainty, new challenges, I belong to the group.  Want to get into the business analytics work,  ... congrats on SBC figured out how to crack the code of the super spenders, product simplicity, brand equity ...  / 2) charge-card, the transaction based underwriting expertise will be so valuable
• I heard there may be roles on the team, would love to know about the opportunities, and build connections ...

|| 2019 ACC Persona (May)

46. || 2019 ACC (May), the most admirable are the people

Skill, craft, decision making, flaws, bias, etc, etc, but these are all traits of people, and the opportunity to observe and to judge shall not be missed.

Disciplines go both in business life and in personal life

• being indifferent gets us the best deals and the best terms, that goes along in personal life, says Murray
• being well groomed and fit and in contemporary clothing is part of the package for being on stage, and front and center
• sounding genuine and humble takes more time than the exact seven bullets of the decision traps or craft of the trades
• all just loving "sparkling water", married with kids, looking attractive and fit, well dressed, speaking 3x the speed of a normal person
• sounding robotic and confident while talking business, without admitting and denying anything, repeating the keywords as if they are acknowledging but the reality is that they may not do it
• getting that phone call ...
• the path and the other alternative path does exist
• be aggressive and be young and going as high as you see the top of it

|| 2019 ACC Framework (May)

45. 2019 ACC (May), where we learn from failures

• What did you fail at today in ACC
• What or who has made a significant impact on your experience today
• How does what you learned today impact your own personal credit decision-making framework

Principles -

• There is an analytical approach to every single problem, so don't miss the opportunity of exercising your brain power.  How many dimes are in the US monetary system, and if you want to be having the confidence of +/- 50% range, what are the numbers?
• Decision traps
• Anchoring trap
• benchmark in and outside of the box
• call out the anchor, form an initial opinion before asking others
• seek data to broaden your perspectives
• ask others but don't anchor them by telling them what you think first
• Confirmation trap
• look for early data to confirm what we want to believe
• neglect to seek contrary evidence
• ask colleagues to challenge your thinking, find that devil's advocate
• actively seek evidence that may undercut your hypothesis
• Availability trap
• our tendency to rely on information that we can easily recall
• we need comprehensive data
• Status quo trap
• overestimate the cost of changes
• Sunk cost trap
• justify the past investment when making the decision by overestimating the probability that "good money has gone bad"
• Prudence trap
• sandbagging
• Framing trap
• different answers when using a different frame

• Rigorous decision model
• know your assumptions
• know your sensitivities
• know your business bets
• avoid pattern recognition failures, attack decision traps
• reduce overconfidence, highlight assumptions that need the most attention
• the last line of defense against decision traps; enable trade-offs and risk management
• ask how likely this will surprise
• ask how likely this will break

• How do we create our own framework
• put the thoughts together
• surprises, breaks
• calibrate my brain
• seek challenger
• everything can be analyzed
• how do I become indifferent

Cases

• double jeopardy - controls, and processes of hold out, double clipping
• ghost in town - null value, inactive, fraud
• lot loan, auto prime - understand the intermediaries as incentives / motivation will incent behavioral differences and deliver results differently; markets are different between leader and attacker; can't model your way out

Credit as a craft

1. every incremental credit decision we make into the system
2. how do we monitor, comprehensive, design, growth management reporting
3. what is the process to monitor
4. manage emerging risks, eg. student debt, digital experiences, improving underwriting tools
5. what do we want to test so that we are not flying blind, can we do decisions without the tests
6. learn from the regulators, who don't care about the culture, but only simply sort the highest and the lowest
7. feedback, credit review, audit, appreciate "seeking out the truth"
8. know what your system is, end to end process, try to make it better

Super spender

• focus on what drives the margin, eg. spend margin
• focus on the end customer
• bound the size of the best to allow yourself to be appropriately aggressive
• reforecast and reassess your level of decision, get more granular as results come in
• in need of a model on payment behavior, could be a splitter
• discover the transaction differences, customers go after different ticket sizes after getting the clip

Credit framework and culture

• Better decision makers
• clear objectives
• look both ways, competitors
• get paid for the risks that you take, not minimizing the risks
• manage the margin vs average (eg. interchange margins)
• understand the P&L
• when will we know (early reads, multiple early reads)
• document the future
• actionable monitoring translates and takes actions
• Talent development
• more experienced does not mean that you are smarter
• there are lots of ways that you can be wrong
• there are also lots of ways that you can be right
• resist the mini-me temptation
• diversity approach and rigorous decision making
• Representatives of the credit community
• a step, a process in the better decisions
• shroud of mystery, closed community, elitism
• are you helping or hurting, drive out the cynicism
• you are the credit analyst does not mean that you are smarter
• Career
• first 20 years are your choices
• second 20 years will be determined by your experiences, diverse knowledge and skills are important

CLIP case

• rigorous about model swaps
• know the world is changing, what does this mean
• be paranoid and action-oriented in monitoring, with action triggers that express in the economic terms for impact

Partnerships

• like branded card returns
• our company led brand
• the same tech path
• unassailable product and Val prop
• monitor and adjust
• launch foundational test soon, test test test
• slope lines based on highest wallet line
• use stated intended spend on card to downslope the lines
• adverse selection downward spiral, adverse selection, low risk, line lines, low utilization, high risk

|| Digital venture investing skills

44. Digital venture investing skills

• The right time, the right place

• Early stage success

1. market, paying visionary customers the compelling reasons to buy
2. product, working core technology
3. team, capable CEO experiences
4. financial, viable business model, sufficient runway

• Mid stage success

1. critical mass pragmatic customers
2. whole product
3. complete healthy team dynamics
4. healthy gross margin, sufficient runway

• Late stage success

1. proven value in multiple niche, marquee customers
2. scalable product, product development continuity
3. execution track record, board of directors, no blow ups
4. healthy net margin

• roles

1. middle man
2. structuring, align the interests of parties involved so that they are mutually protected
3. VCs must understand historic technology waves as well as predict emerging waves
4. A savvy Network Connector for sales, customer feedback, and business development. A great VC network includes Sales, Customer Service, Business Development, and Channel Partners
5. a talent resource for hiring
6. a brand creator
7. a technology consultant
8. leadership and management

|| Thunderbird

The airshow was back in town every other year and was back to me after four years.  The public crowd gathered at the FedEx Field parking lot, went through security, boarded school buses than arrived at the open space of Andrews.  The tarmac was transformed into a fair, a show, a playground, and several educational camps.  The crowd was much bigger, and vendors were ten times additional and all had long lines with very patient patrons.  The event was amazingly very organized and very patriotic.

Thundering loud in the sky, the F16s roared in and out of the scene.  This was the highlight of the 2019 DC Air Show that was taking place at the joint base Andrews just across the Potomac River.  The Thunderbird crew was very impressive, the speed represents the thrill and the move represents calculation plus control.  

We are all watching, we need to get into the action.  I want to fly like a Thunderbird.

|| Recreating the brand

43. Recreating the brand

“I realized that my big-picture knowledge of agricultural trends and business finance uniquely positioned me to cover restaurants with a different perspective.” It’s like a job interview: You’re turning what could be perceived as a weakness (“He doesn’t know anything about food, because he’s been a business reporter for 20 years”) into a compelling strength that people will remember (“He’s got a different take on the food industry, because he has knowledge most other people don’t”).

Successful rebranding doesn’t involve inventing a new persona—it’s a shift in emphasis that should prompt others to say, “I can see you doing that.”

Are there projects you can get involved with that will showcase your new interests and abilities (or help you develop them)?

People use career changes to reinvent themselves all the time, but it’s important to manage one’s brand in such transitions. Doing so can spell the difference between a bungled change and a successful one. There are five key steps in any personal rebranding: 1. Define your destination and acquire the necessary skills. 2. Craft a unique selling proposition and distinguish yourself by leveraging your points of difference. 3. Develop a narrative that describes your transition in terms of the value it offers others. 4. Reintroduce yourself, using digital media and seizing opportunities to showcase your capabilities. 5. Prove your worth by establishing and promoting your track record. Traces of your old brand may linger, but a carefully considered strategy and the ability to create unique value in your changed role will help your new brand take hold.

|| "Two months"

42. "Two Months"

I heard the words on Friday.  The conversation went exactly as planned, except that I think I have the skills to get to the competing agenda of hers and got what I needed to hear. 

• There is never the tomorrow, it needs to be today ... or else there will not be momentum
• Move on and get to a happy place as quickly as possible ... or else I am wasting my own time
• Protect my resources, be supportive for everything and everyone from now on
• Think on the inside the box vs outside the box

This will become the next lift changing moment story, except that I don't know what the story unfolds.  Now let me go back to work it.

|| Embassy Open House

41. All around the world DC embassy open house

Best all around the world -

• Barbados: Party atmosphere. Cheap drinks. Short line.
• Botswana: Dancers with fun music. Long line.
• Costa Rica: Free beer. No line.
• Gabon: Free food and beer. Fashion show. Helpful staff. No line.
• Dominican Republic: Free beer. No line.
• Chili - Salman
• Japan: Technology displays, teriyaki, mochi. Worth the long line.
• Qatar: Incredible food. Photo booth. No line, but crowded.
• Saudi Arabia: Cool exhibits and free food. No line.
• Farragut West station then walk, come back at Foggy Bottom

Best EU - 

• Belgium: Free chocolates. Inexpensive waffles. Long line.
• Czech Republic: Cool ambassador residence. Short line.
• Finland: Many free samples. Long line.
• Germany/France: Co-hosts. Beer garden. Food samples. Meals for purchase. Large grounds. Short line.
• Hungary: Vizsla dogs to play with. Short line.
• Netherlands: Techno party with free Heineken and food. Long line.
• United Kingdom: Tons of exhibits. Short line.

2018 world open house - Morocco, Indonesia, Chile, Haiti, Japan

2018 EU open house - Belgium, Finland, Italy

2019 world open house - Trinidad, Peru (yes), Philippines, Uzbekistan, Chili, Kenya, Korea, Japan, Cote d'ivoire, Qatar

|| Executive presence

40. Executive presence

• Signal, for the preparedness for the next big chance; more than knowing your craft
• Gravitas force, competence, intellectual heavyweight, credibility, eloquence, impact
• Communication, in an American centric corporation, from consensus to impact
• Appearance is small

Survey shows 

• confidence, poise under pressure
• decisiveness, showing teeth, toughness
• emotional intelligence, empathy factor, valuing diverse, customers and clients could be global, build trust; top down isn't working anymore
• vision, a mesaured vision, one that you can put data and evidence around

Tactics 

• Sugar coat strength with humor
• Signal statue and status
• Share stories of roots and passion - but do not overshare; small failures, blunders
• Figure out your non negotiables

Communication

• concise, compelling speaking style; mini ted talk; practice like crazy; know three different versions; learn to tell stories
• ability to command a room; get the buy-in, leave it having impressed, pushed the ball forward, have a central role
• forcefulness and assertiveness; the degree of edginess can be different by bias 
• ability to read a client, a boss, and a room
• sense of humor, ability to banter
• body language and posture; have the full eye contact in the person; 

Tactics

• lose the props; women prepare 1/3 more slides, have to show how much work they have put in but they really undermine them
• make eye contact
• lower your voice and breathe; voices go up when pressure up; not speeding up, not lifting up; manipulates your voice so that you are heard; tone and projection
• stiffen your backbone
• use silence as a weapon; becomes more economical for what you say; learn to surround the thoughts with silence, to deliberately make people feel important; manipulate in a way to get the voice to count; the communication is the way in, commanding importance